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The combination of trends in greenhouse gases and those in atmospheric pollutants translate to changes in concentrations affecting the overall development of radiative forcing. As shown in Fig. 10, the RCPs, as specified in the original selection criteria, cover the trends and level of radiative forcing values of scenarios in the literature very well. The most dominant factor, by far, is the forcing from CO_dos. As a result, both for the RCPs and in the overall literature, 2100 radiative forcing levels are correlated with cumulative 21st century CO₂ emissions (see middle panel of Fig. 10). Thus, it is not surprising that the RCPs are consistent with the literature, both in terms of total forcing and cumulative CO₂ emissions (over the course of the century).

Trends in radiative forcing (left), cumulative 21st century CO₂ emissions vs 2100 radiative forcing (middle) and 2100 forcing level per category (right). Grey area indicates the 98th and 90th percentiles (light/dark grey) of the literature. The dots in the middle graph also represent a large number of studies. Forcing is relative to pre-industrial values and does not include land use (albedo), dust, or nitrate aerosol forcing

Intensity of sky emissions

For tropospheric ozone (driven by the changes in NO_x, VOC, OC and methane emissions, along with changes in climate conditions), there is a clear difference between the RCPs. For RCP8.5, radiative forcing from tropospheric ozone, according to the CAMstep three.5 calculations, increases by an additional 0.2 W/m 2 by 2100 (La). In contrast, there is a decrease in radiative forcing, for RCP4.5 and RCPdos.6, of 0.07 and 0.2 W/m 2 , respectively (again CAM3.5). This is the result of assumed trends in air pollution control and climate policy.

Aerosol concentrations eventually decrease in all RCPs, following the strong decrease in emissions, especially those of anthropogenic SO_2.

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